There are four seasons in a college basketball year: non-conference play, conference play, conference tournament time, and postseason action (NIT and March Madness). Each one has unique attributes. Non-conference action kicks off the year as teams get acquainted with new personnel and take on many schools they’ve never played for before. Conference action finds teams battling for position against teams they meet two or three times a year, while tournament time in February and March focuses on winning the conference title, having a winning season and position your team for an invite to various dances.
We’re in phase two right now, conference play. The conference game is unique in that the schools don’t travel as much. A year ago, North Carolina opened the season in Santa Clara, which meant a team from the southeast traveled across the country. After which, the Tar Heels faced teams from the Big 10, Mountain West, SEC and Pac 10. That’s a lot of travel time, as well as facing teams they’ve never seen before. This makes matchups often difficult and upsets more likely (North Carolina lost 77-66 at Santa Clara as a 13-point favorite).
Conference play means playing against teams in your region, which cuts down on travel time significantly. It also means players are up against other players they’ve seen in the past year, probably multiple times, and playing on facilities they’ve seen before. Home/away play is certainly a key element for handicappers to pay attention to, but with shorter distances and familiar places to go, it may be less of a factor for certain teams because they have been in the gym of the opposition before.
Take a look at Buffalo. Buffalo is fresh off an impressive win over Eastern Michigan, followed by a narrow 84-82 overtime loss to a very good team from Northern Illinois. Buffalo got the cover in both games. The Bulls had experience and these teams didn’t catch them off guard, because Buffalo had beaten both of them a year ago. In fact, last season Buffalo beat Northern Illinois twice, 86-80 at home and again in the MAC tournament, 73-66. That’s three games against each other in less than a year. Familiarity may breed contempt in some social circles, but it helps in preparing for college basketball.
As conference play continues this month, it’s important to look back and see how these teams fared in recent years, especially with senior-laden teams. Buffalo is a dynamic team, so maybe they can have an advantage over a team that lacks depth and plays a slower style. Fortunately, there is a reference point to go to: The latest meetings! But don’t stop there: check out the scores for those games. Buffalo played a close first half against a team that lacked depth and then eliminated them in the second half? If so, that could mean a potential bet in the second half.
Another example could be a team with a significant rebounding advantage in the attacking zone versus a team with a small attacking zone. Again, go back and look at recent games. Did they own the glass the last meeting? What about the last three meetings? Conference play offers plenty of opportunities to do this, especially when teams meet two or even three times a year.