Fantasy football leagues require you to start 2 RBs, and in those leagues with a flexible position, you may even need a starting 3rd RB. Since we’re usually talking about 12-man leagues, that means 24-36 RBs will start each week, and you’ll need reinforcements, as the bug of injuries and underperforming players always bite you. How do you avoid the pain of spending too much on RB and where are those cheap value picks? We are underway with RB sleepers for 2009.
There are basically 3 production levels of RB Fantasy for you to consider. The top tier is 250-300 Fantasy points in a standard scoring format, with around 4-5 RB candidates. The second level is 200 to 250 points, with around 10 or 11 RB. So you have maybe 15 guys that will give you 150 to 200 points. This only represents 29 or 30 really productive runners. You can see how important it is to get a pair of sleepers and get them at a discount.
sleeper #1
Derrick Ward has so many things going for him in Tampa Bay that it’s almost silly. Earnest Graham will share carries with him, but after Graham’s sprained ankle last year and a big contract signed by Ward in the offseason, it’s obvious where TB will hand the ball over most of the time. Ward has averaged 5.3 yards per carry in New York the past two years, and he’s also a catching threat. He goes for 48 sacks, 1,500 total yards from scrimmage and 8 TDs. These kinds of numbers will put him at the bottom of the second tier of backs, and he can look forward to picking it up in round 6 or 7, not bad for round 3 or 4 numbers.
sleeper #2
Donald Brown is a speedy rookie running back from UConn who impressed the Indy bigwigs with his hands as much as his feet. If you remember how Joseph Addai fared three seasons ago in a running back effort for the committee, and factor in Addai’s less-than-impressive 2008, I think you can look at 150 fantasy points from Brown. Addai hasn’t played a full season in 2 years, and Brown probably goes from round 12 to 14. Getting 6th round production in round 12 is what the draft is all about, and I don’t think you can go wrong here.
Anyone can take Matt Forte with the fifth overall pick, but knowing who to pick in the mid and late rounds, without paying too much, is where fantasy titles are won. Look for things like backups, people splitting carries with injury-plagued guys, and jumpers from teams that find themselves in favorable situations. Keeping these things in mind will ensure you get good value out of the RB position and nab a sleeper or two.