With the first and arguably the best game of the weekend taking place at the Millennium Stadium tonight, here are some thoughts on this year’s Six Nations tournament.
Ireland appears to be the favourites, closely followed by England. Unfortunately, due to a lack of depth, Ireland will likely not live up to the bookmakers’ enthusiastic assessment. Despite a wonderful set of results at the Autumn Internationals, the Irish start the tournament without Heaslip, Healy and Sexton, all absolutely vital to their cause. That shouldn’t worry them too much against Italy, even playing away, but Sexton’s ongoing concussion problems must be creating some serious anxiety, not just for this tournament but for the World Cup as well. His dearth of class replacements is highlighted by the selection, for this game, of loose forward O’Brien, who has hardly played rugby since his long injury. Kearney, Bowe and Zebo form a potent back three, the combination of centers in the post-O’Driscoll/D’Arcy era is useful, O’Connell, O’Mahony, O’Brien and Best are all world-class strikers , but Ireland without Sexton is a side at least 20% less effective.
England should probably be six nations favourites, although they are particularly affected by injuries. Farrell, Tuilagi, Morgan, Lawes, Wilson, Launchbury, Parling, Barritt, Eastmond and Tom Wood are missing for the visit to Wales. With a determined combination, Wales will be hoping to win this game, but an upset will be a huge boost for England and make them firm favorites for the title. None of the other teams have anything close to the resources of the English. Even losing their best three blocks for this game, they can put up a solid second row down the field. Tight phases are still considerable weapons for them and there are still quality riders like Mike Brown. Outside, especially against Wales, weaknesses could be exploited if the Welsh are bold enough to ensure North and Cuthbert receive the ball. As the tournament progresses, England will need to add aspects to their game outside of the forward domain. In the World Cup, against teams from the southern hemisphere, strikers will not be enough.
On paper, Wales look like a good team, but it’s doubtful they have the kind of mental fortitude of the wonderful teams of the 1970s. With the addition of Webb at scrum-half, the back line looks complete and very dangerous. Biggar should be the fly-half in the world cup and outside of that he has a fantastic three quarters. The loose trio of Lydiate, Warburton and Faletau are top notch, but a lot will depend on the top five. If they can meet fire with fire against the old foe tonight, Wales should be very pleased.
The most difficult team to analyze in world rugby is always the French. So unpredictable and so much a team of moods, no one knows what to expect from the French. Two South Africans, Kockott and Spedding, make their starting debuts tomorrow and the Kockott/Lopez combination is the 14th running back pairing of the Saint Andre era. After missing the entire 2014 campaign, Dusautoir is back and part of a useful back three at the scrum. Bastareaud and Fofana are a dangerous pair of crosses and there is ample pace. France need to win at home against Scotland, but whatever happens, we probably don’t know the French’s future chances.
Scotland have their best balanced team for many years. The tight five is impressive with Murray, Ford and Dickinson in the front row, backed up by the huge Gray brothers in blocking. Unusually for the Scots, they have pace and size to the wings on Visser and Seymour and the elusive Hogg at the back. However, once the injuries are established, the lack of depth will be exposed. As always, they will play close to their potential.
Italy is likely to be the scapegoat for the tournament. Only the admirable Sergio Parisse and the aging Castrogiovanni are world class. They’ll probably be at the front of the pack, but they’ll likely, as always, have a hard time going back, where they don’t have enough pace, size or skill to upset the better guys.
It’s a pretty open tournament this year and there are probably four teams that can win it.