Navigating through the pile of horse racing handicap factors and the information available for each race is a monumental task. That being said, you really need to refine the information you use to form an opinion. It’s not enough to see that the coach has a 20% win rate. You have to wonder, Where do those victories come from? If the trainer has a 20% win rate overall, but a 25% win rate with horses entered in dirt sprints, it means little to you if the race you’re hurting is a turf course.
When researching the horse’s trainer, look at the number of breeds the trainer has entered and see if the conditioner has a preference. There are some trainers who are well known for their grass-training prowess, but have problems with horse racing on dirt. The same is true when it comes to the age of the horse. Some are very good at grooming young horses and bringing youngsters to races ready to race, but those same trainers struggle to win with older horses.
While it matters if there seems to be a pattern, you also need to consider how many chances the conditioner has with each type of run. If the places where the trainer has horses have a lot of turf racing, then he can look for horses that run well on turf and owners who have such horses. If the trainer runs up north during the colder months, it’s obvious there won’t be many opportunities to run on turf.
Fillies are perhaps the most difficult racehorses to handle because their mental and emotional state is changeable. They are easily discouraged in a race and sometimes go from running well in one race to sulking in the next. That is the reason why some trainers are better than others with young mares.
A special trainer is needed to maintain a calm and stable environment in the barn and during training to instill calm and a sense of purpose in the young mares. Check the winning statistics with two and three year olds and also check how well the trainer does with fillies and mares. When you have a handicap, don’t take anything for granted and don’t accept statistics from the trainer or jockey unless they specifically relate to the sex and age of the horses in the race, as well as the distance and surface of the race.